Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 301252
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN KS...ERN
   OK...SERN NE...SWRN IA...NWRN AR AND WRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OK N AND E TO IA AND IL
   INCLUDING WRN KY AND TN AND NRN AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SETUP TODAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   CENTRAL CONUS. VIGOROUS TROUGH NOW CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
   SWING RAPIDLY EWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
   MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
   CO WILL TRACK ENEWD TO ERN NEB THIS EVENING.  LOW WILL CONTINUE
   DEEPENING TONIGHT AS IT HEADS INTO UPR MS VALLEY.
   
   DRY LINE CURRENTLY WRN KS SWD INTO OK/TX PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT EWD BY
   MID DAY INTO CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK. A VERY STRONG MID/UPR JET MAX
   DRIVES EWD FROM SRN ROCKIES TO ALONG OK/KS BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON
   WHICH COUPLED WITH A 50KT LLJ PROVIDES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
   FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
   AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE NWD AHEAD OF SURFACE
   LOW AND DRY LINE AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO AROUND 60F INTO ERN KS BY MID
   DAY.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS APPEARED TO OVERDUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND AS A RESULT THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD NOT BE
   GREATLY DISRUPTED PRIOR TO INITIATION OF THE SURFACE BASED STORMS
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   LOW.
   
   THE FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE TROUGH IMPACTING THE WARM SECTOR THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD
   FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE ONE CAVEAT IS AIR MASS
   QUALITY AS MLCAPE...PARTICULARLY NRN PORTION OF RISK AREA COULD
   REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.  FURTHER S INTO ERN OK MLCAPES TO 1500
   J/KG OR HIGHER ARE LIKELY BUT WITH PRIMARY FORCING FURTHER N STORM
   COVERAGE COULD BE LESS.
   
   THE 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING LESS CINH THAN PROGGED ACROSS KS/OK
   E OF DRY LINE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT EARLIER SURFACE BASED INITIATION. 
   WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SHIFTED THE RISK AREAS A LITTLE W OF EARLIER
   FORECAST.  SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY MID-DAY VICINITY OF
   THE DRY LINE LIKELY W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN KS AND NRN OK.
   
   CONSIDERED UPGRADING PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO NERN OK...HOWEVER WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY INITIATION AIR MASS COULD BE IMPACTED 
   SUFFICIENTLY PRIOR TO MAX HEATING.  NEVERTHELESS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
   STRONG TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN ERN KS AND NERN OK.
   
   AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WIND MAX ROTATES ACROSS
   LOWER MO VALLEY...STORM MODE WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO BOWS AND LINE
   SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
   HAIL...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK.
   
   SOUTHWARD LIMIT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EXPECTED TO BE OK/TX BORDER
   WHERE CAP WILL BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
   
   ..HALES/GRAMS.. 03/30/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z