Mar 30, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 30 09:22:11 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20060330 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060330 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060330 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060330 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic 
   SPC AC 300546
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CST WED MAR 29 2006
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NEB/SWRN IA...SWD TO
   ERN OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   SRN OK INTO IL...
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY...
   
   SRN ROCKIES SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT THROUGH THE BASE OF
   PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ACROSS OK INTO SWRN MO BY EARLY
   EVENING...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN STRONGLY DIVERGENT
   EXIT REGION ACROSS NEB/KS DURING PEAK HEATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIRMASS IS RECOVERING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH TX INTO OK LATE THIS
   EVENING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S.  THIS AIRMASS
   SHOULD CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD...WHERE IT ULTIMATELY WILL BE RELEASED
   IN THE FORM OF SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH COLD UPPER TROUGH.
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG WARM ADVECTION
   WILL FORCE ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM OK...NWD
   INTO SRN NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD DURING THE
   MID DAY HOURS AS WLY FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SURGE INTO THE BACK
   SIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH A NARROW WEDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR INTO ERN KS/OK.  TIMING OF
   UPPER TROUGH AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL INITIATE ALONG WELL DEFINED DRYLINE BY 21Z...POSSIBLY EARLIER
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER VORT/SFC LOW OVER SCNTRL NEB.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR INITIAL STORM MODE WILL BE
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH SRN EXTENT INTO CNTRL...THEN SRN OK
   SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY WITHIN
   AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. 
   HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING AND WEAKER INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
   IA/MO/AR FAVORS AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE WITH
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  VERY STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC AND
   IMPRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS OF 40-50KT SUGGEST VERY STRONG...DAMAGING
   WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY BOW ECHOES.  ELONGATED SEVERE SQUALL LINE
   WILL THEN RACE NEWD ACROSS IA/MO INTO IL BEFORE WEAKENING VERY LATE
   IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/30/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z