Feb 16, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 16 19:56:10 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060216 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060216 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060216 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060216 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 161952
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
   
   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS....
   
   ...OZARK PLATEAU INTO GREAT LAKES....
   WAVE SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SHARP FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN AMPLITUDE. 
   HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME BETTER
   DEFINED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN
   INDIANA...BEFORE MORE RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN
   RESPONSE TO EAST NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF A 100+ KT 500 MB JET
   OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   IN WAKE OF THE LOW...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING
   PROVIDING FOCUS FOR EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE BY EARLY EVENING. 
   INITIATION OF THIS PROCESS ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY FROM PARTS OF
   CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
   
   NARROW PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...EMANATING FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLATEAU...EXTENDS AHEAD OF FRONT...ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
   INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
   50S...AS FORCING WEAKENS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO EXCEED 500 J/KG.  WITH DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ALREADY VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ALONG STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   AXIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
   
   JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGER SHEAR/BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY
   SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST FROM PARTS OF
   NORTHERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. 
   HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
   SURFACE LOW...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY AND STRONG FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TORNADO POTENTIAL FARTHER
   NORTH...INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  DAMAGING
   WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY.
   
   SURGING ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A GREATER TENDENCY TO
   UNDERCUT SQUALL LINE BY THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS.  THIS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT...AND MAY OCCUR FAIRLY
   RAPIDLY DURING THE 17/03-06Z TIME FRAME.  AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
   BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
   WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS BECOMES INCREASING
   CUT-OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH.
   ...LIKELY BY 12Z FRIDAY.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/16/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z