SPC AC 310838
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER
   TN VLY...ERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
   AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST....
   
   MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT VIGOROUS
   DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...EMANATING FROM INTENSE MID-LATITUDE
   PACIFIC JET...ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.  WHILE ONE WAVE
   LIFTS INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...ANOTHER
   IMPULSE...FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM
   THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
   12Z TUESDAY.
   
   A BROAD...DEEP OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY
   LATTER FEATURE THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW CENTER
   TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
   OCCUR AS A 90+ KT 500 MB JET CORE NOSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
   GULF STATES ON SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION.  ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...A BROAD 30 TO 50+ KT SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET...WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IS
   PROGGED TO REFORM WITH A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE
   SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...EASTERN STATES...
   ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...RELATIVELY WARM LOW-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
   STATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY EARLY MONDAY AS
   GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES OF
   THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CAPPING
   MAY INITIALLY BE INHIBITIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
   INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  GIVEN BROAD AREA OF
   WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND
   VIRTUAL CERTAINTY OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE.
   
   ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO INITIATE BY THE MID DAY HOURS...WITH
   GREATEST THREAT ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE PROGRESSING
   INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EASTERN GULF STATES.  THOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE MAY NOT BE EXTREME...SHEAR PROFILES
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
   FROM GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING
   ...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE AFTER DARK...UNTIL STRONGER
   FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/31/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z