Jun 8, 2005 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Updated: Wed Jun 8 08:17:34 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 080814 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM WEST TX TO THE UPR MS VLY/GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... CONSIDERING THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLEXITY INVOLVED IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE DAY 3 PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PRESENTS A MORE CLASSIC AND PREDICTABLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG A NUMBER OF MODELS THAT A POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG NRN PACIFIC UPPER JET...WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WITH REMARKABLE SIMILARITY IN LATEST GFS...NAM...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SERN NM AT 72H...11/00Z...FRIDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE A DISTURBANCE OF TROPICAL ORIGIN IS FCST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE ERN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. ...SERN CO...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. GIVEN ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND DEEPENING LEE-LOW SHOULD BE MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMMENCE EARLY IN THE DAY BUT CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TOO EARLY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO STORM INITIATION. STRONGEST FORCING AND INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MDT RISK AREA. FOCUS FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL SRH ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXIST ALONG POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SFC LOW AND DRYLINE INFLECTIONS. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. ...MO VLY TO WRN GREAT LAKES.... QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL LIE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WITH SOME WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS MN INTO WI WHERE BOTH GFS AND NAM DEPICT A POSSIBLE WAVE TRAVELING NEWD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. ..CARBIN.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z |