Nov 15, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Nov 15 16:56:13 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats. | |
Public Severe Weather Outlook | |
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The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event. |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
SPC AC 151628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FLP 35 WNW FAM 25 NNE CMI 40 SSE SBN 35 ENE FWA 30 SSE DAY 15 ESE BNA MSL 45 NNW MEI 30 SSE GLH 15 SSW LIT 20 ESE FLP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW UNO 45 NW STL 30 WSW VPZ 30 NNE BEH 30 ENE FNT 35 NE CLE 40 WSW UNI 35 NE HSV 25 ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 40 NE IER 35 ESE TXK 35 NE DEQ 20 WNW UNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BUF 25 WSW LBE 30 E TRI 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 45 ESE GLS 30 NNW PSX 25 SSE AUS 35 NNW AUS 20 SSE CRS 35 SSE PRX 30 SE RKR 45 WNW UNO 30 SSE IRK 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD 10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF ...CONT... 40 SSE 6R6 55 SSE BWD 30 ESE DAL 15 WNW RKR 10 NW TOP 40 SE SDA 40 SSE CWA 40 SSW ESC 35 NNW PLN 25 E ANJ. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO LWR MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LWR MI AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS TO THE WRN GULF CST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO A DEEP YET PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW. THE LOW SHOULD REACH ERN LK SUPERIOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SWEEPS NNE FROM SE KS/SW MO TO LK HURON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW IN S CNTRL MO SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO E OF KSTL BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE NNE ACROSS KCHI AND KSSM TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE LOW ATTM IS SOMEWHAT SEGMENTED ...WITH SHALLOW RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LOCATED S OF MAIN FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LIFT RAPIDLY N INTO SRN LWR MI LATER TODAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES E ACROSS THE MID/LWR MS VLY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N INTO SW ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... BROAD SWATH OF SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NNE IN WIDE WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING MO SURFACE LOW. COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP SWLY SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE FROM SRN MI AND MUCH OF THE OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HIGH WIND AND HAIL. MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER WRN AR. THIS SHOULD HEIGHTEN SEVERE RISK AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES EWD AND DEVELOPS SWD INTO E TX/LA LATER TODAY. 70-80 KT DEEP SHEAR AND QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN QUASI-DISCRETE DESPITE LINEAR FORCING AND ORIENTATION OF FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO SHEAR. THUS...STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL. OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN AR/NRN MS N ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH AND SRN MI. PRESENCE OF VERY LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. SETUP SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. WHILE THE MS/OH VLY STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN SEGMENTS/SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN... AT LEAST IN PART...QUASI-DISCRETE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RISK OF WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REACH AS FAR E/NE AS THE UPR OH VLY AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z