Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 151243
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0643 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
   FLP 35 WNW FAM 25 NNE CMI 10 N LAF 15 WNW MIE 20 N SDF 10 SW BNA MSL
   45 NNW MEI 30 SSE GLH 15 SSW LIT 20 ESE FLP.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
   HRO 30 WSW SPI 25 N VPZ 35 SSW JXN 40 SE FWA 30 N LEX 15 NNE HSV 25
   ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 40 NE IER 35 ESE TXK 40 WSW
   RUE 15 WNW HRO.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
   GLS 55 S CLL 25 ENE AUS 40 NW TPL 25 ENE SEP 10 S DUA 20 NNE MLC 35
   W GMJ 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN ...CONT... 25 N ERI 50 WSW EKN 30
   SE TRI 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD
   10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE
   40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF ...CONT... 65 WNW LRD 55 SSE BWD 10
   SW ADM 10 SW BVO 20 NNE FNB 25 SSW MCW 30 W CWA 10 WSW IMT 60 W ANJ
   25 E ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE
   EVENING FOR ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...SE MO...WRN KY...SRN IL...AND
   WRN INDIANA....
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
   CENTRAL MS AND NE AR NNEWD TO THE INDIANA/MI BORDER....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI
   AREA....
   
   *** AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING TORNADOES AND
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY *** 
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVER
   WRN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD/NEWD TO
   AR/MO/IL BY THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   OVERNIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME NE OK WILL DEEPEN
   AND MOVE NEWD ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY SGF TO STL TO ORD THROUGH
   THIS EVENING.  S OF THE LOW...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
   EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS
   EVENING...AND ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
   TONIGHT...AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
   
   RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE/ IS
   SPREADING NWD ACROSS E TX/SE OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...S OF A
   WARM FRONT ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER AND WWD ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. 
   DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS...BENEATH 7 C/KM MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
   NRN EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY BY THE
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. 
   HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL LIFT NWD
   TODAY ACROSS IL/INDIANA/OH AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NEWD
   ACROSS MO.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING ACROSS ERN
   OK/WRN AR AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THE
   FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR THROUGH MIDDAY...AND
   DEVELOP SWWD INTO NE TX...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO ALSO INCREASE BY
   16-18Z ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR/SE MO WITH THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. 
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
   MOIST PROFILES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400
   M2/S2...ALL SUGGEST THAT LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH TORNADOES
   AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FRONTAL
   SQUALL LINE.  THESE THREATS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS AR/SE MO
   THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EWD/NEWD FROM THERE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
   
   SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER E WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR/MOISTURE AXIS IN THE FORM OF SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL BANDS
   ACROSS ERN AR AND MS NNEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW INTENSE/DAMAGING
   TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR FROM CENTRAL MS/AR NNEWD ACROSS WRN TN/KY TO SRN IL AND
   SRN/CENTRAL INDIANA.
   
   BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXHAUST
   WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH THE MAIN
   CONVECTIVE MODE OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A FORCED SQUALL LINE WITH A
   CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z