SPC AC 160039
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004
   
   VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
   MOB 25 ESE MEI TCL BHM 10 ESE ANB 30 ENE LGC 25 ENE ABY 25 S CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S BVE 40 NNW LUL
   50 WSW CBM TUP 35 ESE MKL 25 SW BNA CHA AHN AGS 25 WNW CHS 35 SSW
   FLO 25 NW ILM 35 WSW HSE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE DAY JBR TXK 10 NE
   BWD SJT 40 S LBB AMA 30 SSW GAG END SZL MLI JVL MKE IMT 10 WNW IWD
   ELO 30 E INL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AL AND FL
   PANHANDLE/SW GA...
   
   ...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE/SW GA...
   HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ITS NWD TRACK TOWARD THE AL GULF
   COAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE.
   IN SPITE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- NAMELY
   IN NE QUADRANT OF IVAN -- WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES INTO THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST PERIPHERAL
   CONVECTIVE BANDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1
   KM SRH OF 200-500 MS/S2 AND 0-1 SHEAR OF 35 KTS OR GREATER...AS
   EVIDENT IN STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH IN 00Z TLH RAOB.
   
   REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST DETAILS ON
   TORNADO HAZARD.
   
   ...WRN GREAT LAKES/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...WITH
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
   LAKES...WHILE TRAILING PORTION DECELERATES ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY/OZARKS. OVERALL DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED REMAINDER
   OF EVENING OWING TO MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND ONLY GLANCING BACKGROUND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH SWD EXTENT.
   THUS ONLY LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED REMAINDER
   OF PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
   
   ..GUYER/KERR.. 09/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z