STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF AR...ERN OK AND
   SRN MO TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SGF 50 SE VIH 20 WSW CGI
   35 N MEM 35 NE PBF 25 WSW PBF 10 ENE TXK 40 SW PGO 15 E MKO 35 NW
   FYV 10 WNW SGF.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   30 SE TAD PUB 30 NE PUB 15 SE LIC 25 SSW GLD 30 NNE DDC 40 SE DDC
   65 WSW GAG DHT 30 SE TAD.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 N ART 30 SSE ELM 20 WNW AOO 45 SW EKN 35 SSE PSK 35 ESE RWI
   25 W HSE ...CONT... 35 S CRE 25 ESE CSG 20 SSW MGM LUL HEZ
   45 WNW POE 45 N HOU 15 SSW CLL 15 ENE TPL DAL 20 WSW MLC 25 NE TUL
   25 SSW SZL 40 ENE COU 20 SW MTO 15 WSW DAY 25 WNW ZZV ERI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 20 WSW MPV
   30 NNE PSF ISP ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 25 SW CTY ...CONT...
   15 SE DRT 55 WNW HDO 25 WNW ADM 15 WNW OKC 45 NNE CDS 20 SE TCC
   ALS 15 SE CAG 15 WNW VEL 50 NE U24 P38 15 E LAS 40 SSW DRA NID RBL
   45 N SVE LOL EKO 55 SSE BYI 45 WNW PIH S80 GEG 35 N 63S ...CONT...
   35 NW HVR GCC 60 NE DGW 15 WNW AIA 15 SSE LBF EAR 40 E HSI
   10 SE LNK 55 E OMA 40 ENE DSM 30 NNW MLI 25 SE RFD 10 E CGX
   30 SE AZO DTW.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
   WITH BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
   THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WLY FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE SWRN STATES
   NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS/OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO NORTHEAST.
   A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND
   SHOULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING 
   STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM...FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WRN PA SWWD 
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
   ...ERN TX/OK EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE DURING THE MORNING AS
   WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
   THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MODELS BRING
   ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROUGH INTO
   CENTRAL OK BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO NERN OK TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SRN MO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
   VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
   SOUNDINGS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY...STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AS LIFT INCREASES FROM STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
   DIFLUENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55 KT SHEAR AND STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRENGTH OF THE
   SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT TORNADOES ARE ONCE AGAIN
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA....ALONG WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP/MOVE
   NWD AND EWD INTO SRN MO/ERN AR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD. 
   
   ...TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CENTRAL TX...MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE
   AREA. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE SEVERE AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD...BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY DIURNALLY WITH HEATING AS THEY MOVE
   EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY/SWLY FLOW AND 55 KT MID
   LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...
   PARTICULARLY FROM 18-00Z. 
   
   ...WRN PA SWWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
   THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
   AID IN STORM INITIATION WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS. 
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED BACKING OF LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF REGION...ADVECTING HIGHER THETAE AIR AND
   CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.  THE INCREASED
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   DIABATIC DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS
   AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT.
    
   ..IMY.. 05/05/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z