STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW BVE 25 WSW CBM 35 NNE MKL 25 NNW HOP 45 ENE BWG 30 SSE LOZ
35 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 N DAB 55 SSE CTY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE 7R4 35 SE ESF
20 N MLU 15 NNW LIT 35 W JLN 30 WNW TOP 50 NW LWD 15 SSW MLI
35 N LAF 10 S FKL 15 E ISP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 30 E RAP
50 NW GCK 30 SSW LAA 20 ESE ASE 35 WNW PUC 20 NNW EKO 70 SE BNO
45 S PDT 45 NW 4OM.
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED...MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SRN MO AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NERN AR ACROSS KY AND INTO NRN VA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF COAST AND SERN U.S. WHILE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.
...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST EWD INTO THE SERN U.S...
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST ACROSS SRN KY/TN SWD INTO MS/AL. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL SLOW DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG
40-45KT LLJ AXIS SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPES TO APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS TN INTO NRN AL/GA AND SC. FARTHER S ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN AL/GA AND NRN FL...DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.
TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP INVOF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN KY/TN
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED SWD ALONG
COLD FRONT INTO AL/GA/SC AND AS FAR S AS NRN FL. COMBINATION OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND SEGMENTED BOWING STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF ANY RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
(I.E. LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND 20-30KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR).
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A CORRIDOR OF MORE SIGNIFICANT/
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FROM NERN/E-CNTRL AL EWD INTO
WRN SC. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK MAY BE
NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS ONCE THE DETAILS OF THE EVENT
EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST EWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS INSTABILITY
WILL BE MORE LIMITED AFTER DARK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
..MEAD.. 04/24/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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