Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Apr-24-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
(Select thumbnail to view full image)
   
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 WSW BVE 25 WSW CBM 35 NNE MKL 25 NNW HOP 45 ENE BWG 30 SSE LOZ
   35 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 N DAB 55 SSE CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE 7R4 35 SE ESF
   20 N MLU 15 NNW LIT 35 W JLN 30 WNW TOP 50 NW LWD 15 SSW MLI
   35 N LAF 10 S FKL 15 E ISP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 30 E RAP
   50 NW GCK 30 SSW LAA 20 ESE ASE 35 WNW PUC 20 NNW EKO 70 SE BNO
   45 S PDT 45 NW 4OM.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CLOSED...MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SRN MO AT THE BEGINNING
   OF THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE
   TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NERN AR ACROSS KY AND INTO NRN VA BY
   SATURDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL GULF COAST AND SERN U.S. WHILE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NWD
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.  
   
   ...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST EWD INTO THE SERN U.S...
   STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   FORECAST ACROSS SRN KY/TN SWD INTO MS/AL. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL SLOW DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NRN
   PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG
   40-45KT LLJ AXIS SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPES TO APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG BY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS TN INTO NRN AL/GA AND SC. FARTHER S ACROSS
   CNTRL/SRN AL/GA AND NRN FL...DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.
   
   TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP INVOF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN KY/TN
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED SWD ALONG
   COLD FRONT INTO AL/GA/SC AND AS FAR S AS NRN FL. COMBINATION OF
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-
   50 KTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS AND SEGMENTED BOWING STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF ANY RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
   (I.E. LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND 20-30KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR).
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A CORRIDOR OF MORE SIGNIFICANT/
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FROM NERN/E-CNTRL AL EWD INTO
   WRN SC. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK MAY BE
   NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS ONCE THE DETAILS OF THE EVENT
   EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR. 
   
   THE THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST EWD INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS INSTABILITY
   WILL BE MORE LIMITED AFTER DARK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/24/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home