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Mesoscale Discussion 117
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0117
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101920Z - 102145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest
   thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely in the
   short term.

   DISCUSSION...Convection across parts of central TX has recently
   shown some signs of intensification as a subtle mid-level vorticity
   maximum ejects northeastward over the southern Plains within a broad
   zone of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. This activity should tend
   to remain elevated this afternoon, being located generally
   along/north of a weak boundary evident in 19Z surface observations.
   Even though low-level moisture remains limited, modest steepening of
   mid-level lapse rates and filtered daytime heating beneath a thick
   cirrus deck have allowed around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE to develop
   across this region.

   Recent VWPs from KEWX/KGRK show weak low-level flow veering and
   strengthening with height above 3 km, and especially above 6 to 8
   km, where a very strong southwesterly upper-level jet is present per
   latest mesoanalysis. Long, nearly straight hodographs through the
   cloud-bearing layer, with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, should
   support supercells with associated threat for mainly severe hail
   this afternoon. Strong/gusty winds may also occur with any supercell
   near the front as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes.
   Regardless, large-scale ascent is fairly weak, and overall coverage
   of robust thunderstorms remains uncertain. This, coupled with only a
   marginally favorable thermodynamic environment, suggests that the
   overall severe threat will probably tend to remain fairly isolated
   over the next few hours. Therefore, watch issuance is unlikely in
   the short term.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29449997 30289963 31409872 31329796 30839710 30529697
               30109717 29299824 29179886 29449997 

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