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Mesoscale Discussion 112
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MD 112 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0112
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024

   Areas affected...Northern Arizona

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 081648Z - 081945Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates 1-2 inches per hour. Areas of
   blowing snow with poor visibility.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front currently located across western Arizona
   will advance eastward this morning. Ahead of this feature, upslope
   snow showers are ongoing with light to moderate snow being reported
   in Flagstaff and across the Prescott Valley. Temperatures below 6000
   feet are hovering just above freezing just south of the Mogollon
   Rim. Ahead of the front, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are in
   place around 7-8 C/km. As the front advances eastward, snowfall
   rates will increase as frontogenetic forcing increases along with
   strong upslope flow along the terrain. Given the lapse rate profile,
   some convective enhancement is likely, with heavy snowfall rates
   around 1-2 inches per hour at times. Lower elevation locations where
   dew points are below 32F may see quick snow levels lower with any
   heavier precipitation rates. Given the strong southerly flow gusting
   25-30 mph (locally as high as 40 mph), poor visibility is likely,
   especially along the cold frontal passage. These conditions will
   continue to shift eastward with the cold front, mainly along the
   high terrain of the Mogollon Rim, through the afternoon and evening.

   ..Thornton.. 02/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...

   LAT...LON   34611154 34831163 34921181 34921192 34671212 34401232
               34381256 34701283 35011276 35321268 35411266 35501246
               35501211 35461186 35361165 35161140 34981118 34921112
               34711102 34481111 34431128 34611154 

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