ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081946 
SPC MCD 081946 
TXZ000-OKZ000-082215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...parts of northern into central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 081946Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms capable of
very large hail and a tornado or two are expected over the next
several hours from parts of central into northeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...Deeper convection is beginning to form along the
dryline near San Saba and Mills Counties, with increasing Cu depth
extending northeastward along the dryline. A very moist and
extremely unstable air mass resides east of the dryline, with MLCAPE
in excess of 4000 J/kg. Effective deep-layer shear up to 50 kt with
a large cross component to the boundary will favor supercell storm
mode, with very large hail expected. A few tornadoes may occur as
well, perhaps brief but locally intense, given extreme instability
and sufficient low-level shear. An expansive, uncapped warm sector
suggests cells may remain severe for a long duration.

..Jewell/Smith.. 05/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31569513 30709679 30209871 30439902 31019868 31289838
            31949771 32819719 33669681 33799589 33869520 33629455
            33469435 32449456 31569513 

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