ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072105 
SPC MCD 072105 
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-072230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Areas affected...western/central North Carolina and western
Virginia.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072105Z - 072230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging wind
gusts are possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed over the mountains and are
moving toward greater instability across central North Carolina this
afternoon. Amid around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear (per SPC
mesoanalysis), storms have been organized with some supercell
structures apparent. Given the supercell storm mode and moderate to
strong instability and increasing shear through the evening, there
will be a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts with these
storms. Height rises and synoptic scale subsidence should keep storm
coverage isolated and end the threat by sunset which should preclude
the need for a watch.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   37418191 38018159 37587997 36887899 36137892 35657904
            34847939 34828125 34998189 35368232 37418191 

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