ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072033 
SPC MCD 072033 
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Areas affected...southern Lower MI...eastern IN...western OH...far
northern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 072033Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...As supercells spread quickly east-northeast from southern
Lower MI and northwest IN, an additional tornado watch/watches will
be needed prior to 22Z. This may also include a combined/separate
watch farther south in eastern IN/western OH ahead of supercells
intensifying over the Wabash Valley.

DISCUSSION...As mentioned in MCD 0679, an increasingly favorable
setup for supercells, a couple of which may be long-tracked, is
underway across northwest IN to the Wabash Valley. The northern
storms may being to outpace the rapid boundary-layer
warming/moistening that is occurring across northeast IN and
northwest OH into southern Lower MI. Nevertheless, the intense
mid-level jet will likely foster sustained supercells even as they
become slightly elevated towards southeast Lower MI. With backed
low-level flow and ample low-level shear (per IWX VWP data), the
tornado threat will remain prominent with any supercells along and
south of the surface warm front. A couple strong tornadoes are
possible.

..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   42758544 42698458 41898367 41398340 40538329 38478394
            38308491 38688589 41048526 42758544 

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