ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070043 
SPC MCD 070043 
OKZ000-070215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Northwest into central OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...

Valid 070043Z - 070215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.

SUMMARY...An uptick in strong tornado potential is expected through
and beyond 9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A southwest to northeast corridor of supercells has
become established from west-central into north-central OK. Midlevel
mesocyclones with the cells across Blaine and Kingfisher County have
intensified this evening as they have moved into an environment
characterized by increasing low-level moisture (with dewpoints near
70 F), strong to extreme instability, and strengthening low-level
flow/shear as noted on the KTLX and KVNX VWPs. The cell over
Garfield County earlier produced a tornado, and tornado potential
with the other storms along this corridor will increase as they move
eastward this evening. 

The 00Z OUN sounding depicts a volatile environment, with MLCAPE in
excess of 3500 J/kg, effective shear of around 60 kt, and 0-1 km SRH
in excess of 300 m2/s2. Low-level flow/shear will continue to
increase through the evening, becoming even more favorable for
strong to intense tornadoes. The primary uncertainty this evening is
the cluster storm mode that has developed, but the ongoing cell
south of Enid and the trailing cell over Custer County will both
have an opportunity to move through a very favorable environment
through 9 PM CDT.

..Dean.. 05/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35279944 35729903 36509814 36889766 36799661 35969711
            35319777 35239898 35279944 

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