ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062035 
SPC MCD 062035 
OKZ000-062130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Northwest OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...

Valid 062035Z - 062130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.

SUMMARY...Initial supercell development across northwest Oklahoma
will pose a primary near-term risk for large to very large hail.
Tornado threat should increase rapidly towards 5 to 6 pm.

DISCUSSION...Most prominent convective development on the dryline
south of KS has been in the Ellis county vicinity of northwest OK.
Additional cells should form farther south towards I-40 based on the
agitated CU field noted in the southeast TX Panhandle. These cells
will likely evolve into long-track supercells as they mature with a
primary initial threat of large to very large hail. OK-Mesonet
surface observations confirm the leading edge of upper 60s dew
points are along a line from roughly Tipton to Lahoma. As these
cells impinge on the greater low-level buoyancy and stronger
low-level shear over central OK (per comparison of FDR/TLX/VNX VWP
data), potential for tornadoes will increase substantially during
the early evening. This scenario is supported by recent WoFS
guidance.

..Grams.. 05/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   36819942 36909870 36869813 36739779 36519757 35839780
            35489829 35399884 35339934 35389980 35849993 36359966
            36819942 

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