ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052146 
SPC MCD 052146 
TXZ000-052315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

Valid 052146Z - 052315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized/bowing cluster of storms over South Texas
will continue to pose local risk for hail and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows bowing cluster of strong storms
moving southeastward across Deep South Texas at around 25 kt.  The
storms are being fed by around 30 kt southeasterly low-level inflow
per the latest CRP WSR-88D VWP, which -- along with ample downstream
instability -- suggests that the storms will be sustained over the
next hour or two, with continued southeastward movement.

With that said, indications are that capping is stronger to the
south, which may hinder the advance of the convection on the
southern end to some degree.  As such, while storms are on a
trajectory to move into portions of the BRO CWA, new WW south of the
existing watch may not be needed, though we will continue to monitor
convective evolution in the near term, in that regard.

..Goss.. 05/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   27889950 28489860 28299724 27759679 26749721 27049864
            27499915 27889950 

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