ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 041549 SPC MCD 041549 ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-041745- Mesoscale Discussion 0628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to central Arkansas and southern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041549Z - 041745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the late morning and afternoon hours, but an overall limited kinematic environment should modulate the severe threat. However, a few instances of severe hail and damaging winds appears possible through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Over the past 60 minutes, a handful of convective towers and developing thunderstorms have emerged along a surface cold front in eastern OK and across the warm sector as a mid-level impulse propagates across the region. MRMS vertically integrated ice, cloud top temperatures, and lightning trends all show steady intensification as these cells mature in an environment characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Much of eastern OK, AR, and southern MO is in between two synoptic shortwave troughs, which is resulting in relatively weak mid-level winds. However, the gradual approach of an open wave from the southwest will slowly increase mid/upper-level winds through early/mid-afternoon, resulting in elongation of deep-layer wind profiles with effective shear values approaching 20-25 knots. This combination of moderate buoyancy and modest wind fields should allow for some storm organization into multi-cell clusters with an attendant marginal hail risk (most likely between 0.5 to 1.0 inch in diameter). Heading into the afternoon hours, low-level heating of a moist air mass should support surface-based convection with an increasing potential for damaging winds. Based on recent radar trends, this threat appears most likely to materialize across central to north-central AR over the next 2-4 hours. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... OUN... LAT...LON 35119676 36199475 37199346 37609241 37649167 37399111 37069084 36429085 35679098 34989127 34519161 34239224 33709437 33679518 33849582 34149637 34589674 34939682 35119676 NNNN