ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 031919 SPC MCD 031919 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-032045- Mesoscale Discussion 0614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...The high plains of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado...extreme southwest Kansas...western Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031919Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the high plains of southeastern CO and northeastern NM through this afternoon. Hail near 1-1.25 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph, and perhaps a landspout or two will be possible. DISCUSSION...Surface mass/moisture convergence and insolation has increased near the Raton Mesa this afternoon leading to the development of moist convection. This area is also beneath the right entrance region of a mid level jet max now progressing ENE over northwestern KS. Both recent visible satellite imagery and radar indicate a few stronger updrafts continue to persist on the NM side, where moisture advection has led to dewpoints increasing into the upper 40s to low 50s. The environment is also characterized by increasing MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kts. Although not particularly favorable for supercell development, this environment could support a few organized updrafts capable of marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts. The latter may be especially true across CO where inverted V profiles will persist longer. In addition, low level CAPE is also increasing across this region and should expand northward over the next 1-2 hours, aiding in enhanced stretching which could support a landspout or two. ..Barnes/Squitieri/Smith.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37030152 36590257 35920413 35890511 36480522 36980498 37960478 38500375 38540260 38290186 37860143 37490140 37030152 NNNN