ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 030418 
SPC MCD 030418 
TXZ000-030615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 030418Z - 030615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging gusts will remain
possible over central Texas for the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell currently in Lampasas County
still has a robust updraft, although a weakening trend may be
beginning, evidenced by both lowering echo tops and the
outflow-dominant velocity signature. Given this trend, damaging
gusts are likely the greatest threat with this storms, although some
isolated hail is still possible. 

A multicellular cluster has also recently developed across Hamilton
and Bosque Counties, where anvil precipitation likely helped foster
mid-level initiation in an environment characterized by low-level
stability. Updrafts within this cluster are strong and do have some
mid-level rotation, suggesting there is some potential for large
hail. There is less buoyancy and increasing convective inhibition
within the downstream air mass, so the general expectation is for
these storms to gradually weaken as the move eastward over the next
hour or two.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31819958 32079707 31629634 30829686 30889940 31819958 

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