ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021907 
SPC MCD 021907 
TXZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...parts of northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 021907Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, including a couple
of evolving supercells with potential to producing large hail in
excess of 2 inches in diameter and perhaps a tornado or two, appears
increasingly likely by 4-6 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A zone of differential surface heating continues to
become better defined across parts of the Texas South Plains into
central Texas, with stronger boundary-layer heating and mixing
ongoing to the west of air impacted by overnight convection.  A weak
surface low appears to be developing along this boundary between
Childress and Abilene, with a developing area of strengthening warm
advection to its east and southeast.  This appears to be
contributing to ongoing gradually deepening convective development,
beneath a plume of warm and capping elevate mixed-layer air.

Along and east of a sharpening dryline, to the south of the low, a
seasonably moist boundary-layer is becoming characterized by
mixed-layer CAPE up to 3000 J/kg.  Low-level wind fields are light,
but veering with height beneath 25-50 kt flow in the 500-300 mb
layer appears to be contributing to sufficient shear for supercells.

Although potential mid/upper forcing for thunderstorm development
remains unclear, latest model output suggests that lift associated
with warm advection, coupled with the approach of convective
temperatures, will contribute to increasing probabilities for
thunderstorm initiation through 21-23Z.  Once this occurs,
intensification may be rapid, with stronger storms becoming capable
of producing large hail and perhaps posing a risk for tornadoes.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   31870052 33060048 34210085 34079944 33479900 32899890
            31879943 31870052 

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