ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021842 
SPC MCD 021842 
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...Northern and central OK...southeast KS...and
central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021842Z - 022045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development will continue through
this afternoon across northern OK, far southeastern KS, and central
MO. Marginally severe hail up to the size of half dollars (1-1.5
inches) and localized wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with
any robust updrafts.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface
observations show a cold front progressing southward into northern
OK extending from Lawrence, KS southwestward just through Alva, OK.
An MCV over far northeastern OK will continue to slowly advance ENE
this afternoon. Linear forcing along the cold front has resulted in
enough ascent for a cluster of deep moist convection to develop
across SE KS. Further northeast across far eastern KS and central
MO, a few more multicell clusters have developed along a weakly
forced stationary boundary. As the cold front continues to nudge
southward into north central OK, additional linear multicell
clusters will likely develop along it, while more widely scattered
development persists ahead of the MCV over MO.

The environment across the region is not particularly favorable for
supercells given inadequate deep layer shear and low buoyancy
(widespread cloud cover has persisted through most the day). 
However, as insulation continues to increase this afternoon and a
slow increase in mid to upper flow spreads eastward, some organized
updrafts are possible. Convective trends will be monitored for
intensification.

..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34979734 35539833 36599809 37979605 38279578 39999449
            40589226 40449154 39759141 39249078 38669101 37889165
            36289453 34979734 

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