ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020321 
SPC MCD 020321 
TXZ000-020515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

Valid 020321Z - 020515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues in WW173.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across portions of central Texas
has been widely scattered, with cells occasionally intensifying to
severe limits. Thus far reports have been limited to a few hail
reports and reports of tree damage. Trends in VAD data from EWX
Austin/San Antonio indicate the expected increase in the low-level
jet is underway with increasing curvature of the low level hodograph
and increasing storm relative helicity. Under this warm advection
regime, storm mode has remained very disorganized and clustered.
Forecast from the HRRR have continued to favor eventual organization
of storms into an overnight MCS. Should this occur, the risk for
damaging winds and possibly a tornado would increase. Given the
favorable increase in wind profiles and continued favorably moist
and unstable atmosphere, this area will continue to support a severe
risk through the evening and overnight.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 05/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30819891 31249774 31549578 31569534 31379477 30949460
            30569478 30169520 29799714 29799844 29859877 30079901
            30319910 30819891 

NNNN