ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 012307 SPC MCD 012307 OKZ000-TXZ000-020030- Mesoscale Discussion 0592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far Northwestern TX...Far Southwestern/Western OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 171... Valid 012307Z - 020030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 171 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards, including very large hail from 2.5" to 3.5" in diameter, strong gusts up to 75 mph, and tornadoes continues across the eastern TX Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are currently ongoing across the eastern TX Panhandle, including a pair of tornadic storms, one over Roberts Ochiltree Counties in the northeast TX Panhandle and the other farther south in Briscoe and Hail Counties. Both of these storms, as well as the other supercells developing southwestward from the Panhandle into the Texas South Plains, are in a favorable environment for persistence. Main factor influencing overall updraft maintenance and storm persistence will be storm mergers/interactions. Some secondary influence from anvil shading and resulting boundary-layer cooling is possible, although this could be offset by continuing low-level moisture advection. The general expectation is for storms to persist, with perhaps one substantial storm eventually emerging out of the cluster over Briscoe and Hall Counties. Given the unimpeded inflow and anticipated strengthening of low-level flow, this storm would likely represent the best candidate for a significant severe weather, including very large hail, strong gusts, and tornadoes, over the next hour or two. Storm motion has been relatively slow thus far, generally 15 to 20 kt, with a few storm moving even slower. As such, this activity will likely remain in the eastern TX Panhandle (i.e. within Tornado Watch 171) for the next few hours. Even so, trends will be monitored for faster storm motion and the potential for activity to move into western OK earlier. ..Mosier.. 05/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36030139 36650085 36369982 34399974 33330031 33380173 35130151 36030139 NNNN