ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 011957 SPC MCD 011957 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-012200- Mesoscale Discussion 0589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...parts of northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011957Z - 012200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely through 4-6 PM CDT, including the evolution of supercells with potential to produce large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, and a risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident south-southeast through northeast of Amarillo, along a sharpening dryline that extends northward into southwestern Kansas near Garden City. To the east of this boundary, the western flank of a boundary-layer air mass impacted by convective outflow appears to be gradually modifying across the eastern Texas Panhandle into the Childress vicinity, in response to continuing isolation. Aside from weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, large-scale forcing for ascent may remain weak to negligible into early evening, and the warming aloft will contribute to increasing inhibition to the east of the dryline. However, with further surface heating, it appears that the approach of convective temperatures along the dryline and differential heating boundary will contribute to increasing probabilities for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development through 21-23Z. With 60s to near 70F surface dew points contributing to large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg along the surface boundaries, in the presence of steep lapse rates, the environment is becoming increasingly support of potential for supercells beneath 30-40 kt west-southwesterly flow around 500 mb. Models suggest that this may veer to more of a westerly component by early evening, while modest southerly flow around 850 mb backs with time and strengthens to around 30+ kt across the eastern Texas Panhandle. As this occurs, profiles appear likely to become increasingly supportive of strengthening low-level mesocyclones with potential to produce tornadoes. Tornadic potential may become maximized with stronger cells tending to propagate eastward and southeastward across the differential heating boundary, before they tend to weaken as they encounter more stable updraft inflow. However, in the wake of this activity, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development is likely to persist along the stationary to slowly retreating dryline into early evening, with a continuing risk for large hail and tornadoes. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 34920202 36060177 37020206 37600219 38140090 38339969 37339938 36359964 35579977 34949963 34299960 33650005 33440120 33690192 34350178 34920202 NNNN