ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291758 
SPC MCD 291758 
MIZ000-292000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Areas affected...the Michigan Thumb vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291758Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The evolution of an isolated supercell accompanied by at
least some potential for a tornado, in addition severe hail and
wind, appears possible across the Michigan Thumb vicinity near Bad
Axe through 3-5 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of larger-scale mid-level troughing, with an
embedded low, migrating northeastward into/through the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, a strong south-southwesterly mid-level
jet (40-70 kt in the 700-500 mb layer) is in the process of
propagating across lower Michigan.  In association with this
feature, an area of stronger surface pressure falls (2-3+ mb 2
hourly) has generally begun to shift across Lake Huron, but still
extends along an axis as far south as the Flint MI vicinity.  This
is near a weak surface frontal low which is forecast to migrate
across and northeast of the Bad Axe vicinity through 19-21Z.

South of the front, boundary-layer moistening (including surface dew
points around 60f) has been sufficient to contribute to weak
destabilization (including mixed-layer CAPE increasing up to 500
J/kg).  Although further heating and mixing may reduce this some to
the south of the front, this may be maintained along the front, just
ahead of the low, which may gradually provide a focus for
intensifying convection.  Given the strength of the vertical shear,
including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, and
localized forcing for ascent, the evolution of a supercell appears
possible, which may pose at least some risk for producing a tornado,
in addition to marginally severe hail and wind.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...

LAT...LON   43518375 44018294 43788262 43438274 43228323 43248368
            43518375 

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