ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 261946 SPC MCD 261946 MOZ000-KSZ000-262145- Mesoscale Discussion 0531 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261946Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Rapid air mass recovery is underway east of the dryline in the wake of the early day MCS. Hi-res guidance and observational tends suggest isolated storm development is possible, but uncertain, over the next few hours. Supercells with a risk for all hazards will be possible and a Tornado Watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1940 UTC, visible imagery showed renewed attempts at deepening cumulus towers along the dryline across northern and central KS. Large-scale ascent has been steadily increasing this afternoon as a mid-level jet begins to impinge on the recovering warm sector over eastern KS and far western MO. Rapid air mass modification is ongoing as mid-level dry air associated with the jet streak has eroded lingering convective cloud debris. Dewpoints have increased into the low to middle 60s F in eastern KS over the last couple of hours as vertical mixing has deepened. Still, moderate inhibition remains in place as observed from ACARS soundings at MCI and the TOP RAOB. Continued heating, and the arrival of broad ascent will allow for additional destabilization with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg likely by late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will likely support strong and deep updrafts if convection is able to develop. Strong veering wind profiles would also favor a predominately supercell storm mode, with a risk for all hazards. The primary uncertainty is the potential for limited coverage of storms amid the ongoing air mass recovery. Recent hi-res guidance continues to indicate a few storms will likely evolve along the dryline this afternoon and track northeastward into northeastern KS and western MO. However, exactly how many storms develop, and how far east they will pose a threat remains unclear given the remaining inhibition. Still, very strong low-level shear observed from area VADs and large buoyancy may support a significant severe threat (including a strong tornado) with any supercells able to become established. While timing remains very uncertain, convective trends are being monitored for a potential Tornado Watch this afternoon. ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39849484 39209455 37689460 37709670 39519655 39599642 39849484 NNNN