ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 261753 SPC MCD 261753 ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-262000- Mesoscale Discussion 0527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of east-central Oklahoma into far northern Texas and western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261753Z - 262000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms capable of tornadoes and very large hail may develop this afternoon over parts of eastern Oklahoma southward into the Red River Valley and toward far western Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible satellite clearly show the dryline progressing across central OK and into western North Texas, with gradually increasing CU fields to the east. Cool outflow remains over much of northeast OK into northwest AR, but dewpoints continue to rise just south and west of the existing outflow boundary. The 18Z OUN sounding shows an uncapped air mass and strong instability just ahead of the dryline. Even greater surface theta-e values exist south and east of the area, contributing to over 3000 MUCAPE. Shear is also strong across the area, with around 60 kt effective deep layer shear, and 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 for most of the region. As heating continues ahead of the dryline, and clouds erode, a narrow zone of supercell potential will develop and at least isolated cells are expected later this afternoon. The environment will favor tornadic supercells, with potential for strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. The aggregated threat area may be relatively small in time and space, however, any supercells that endure may produce significant severe weather. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35209394 34799383 34269480 33879590 33419723 33369764 33659761 34869718 35479698 36269679 36939663 37089663 37249636 37129582 36919547 36449532 35879514 35539488 35369464 35209394 NNNN