ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 250829 SPC MCD 250829 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-251200- Mesoscale Discussion 0511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Areas affected...parts of south central Nebraska through eastern Kansas and adjacent northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250829Z - 251200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorm activity may occasionally intensify with at least some increase in potential to produce severe hail through 6-8 AM CDT. While it still appears unlikely that this will require a severe weather watch, trends will be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is well underway in response to lift and destabilization associated with elevated moisture return within bands of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection across the central Great Plains. This is initially focused in corridors across parts of western Nebraska into northwestern Kansas, and across eastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma, where initial moistening and destabilization has been weak. However, more substantive moistening within the 850-700 mb layer is ongoing across much of western and central Kansas through eastern Oklahoma, beneath increasingly warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the southern Rockies. Into the 11-13Z time frame, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that the better low-level moistening may begin to increasingly underrun the sharpening eastern periphery of the stronger mid-level inhibition in a corridor roughly from Kearney/Hastings NE through the Emporia and Chanute KS vicinities. Based on forecast soundings, it appears that this may lead to most unstable CAPE increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg, in the presence of sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear (beneath 30-50 kt westerly flow in the 500-300 mb layer) for persistent supercell structures capable of producing severe hail. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 40209749 38379542 37259470 36689491 36409563 36569624 38729754 40149974 40209749 NNNN