ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 180131 SPC MCD 180131 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180400- Mesoscale Discussion 0477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern KS...northwest MO...extreme southeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 180131Z - 180400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm development is possible later this evening. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will be the primary hazards. DISCUSSION...The 01Z surface analysis depicts a surface low over eastern CO, with a confluence zone/dryline extending southeastward into south-central KS, then southward across western OK. While rather strong diurnal heating occurred across the region this afternoon, richer low-level moisture (with surface dewpoints in the 60s F) currently remains confined to parts of OK/TX. However, an increasing low-level jet (as noted in regional VWPs) will aid in low-level moisture transport into central/eastern KS later this evening. Moderate MLCAPE already noted over OK will spread northward into parts of central/eastern KS, though MLCINH will likely remain rather stout, rendering surface-based development unlikely. However, increasing moisture around 850 mb will support MUCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg later this evening, with decreasing MUCINH as moisture deepens above the surface. Elevated thunderstorm development has recently been noted west of Concordia, and the combined influence of warm advection attendant to the increasing low-level jet and a low-amplitude shortwave trough traversing the region will support increasing thunderstorm coverage later this evening. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear (generally in the 40-50 kt range) will support potential for an elevated supercell or two. Large hail is the most likely hazard, though the residual well-mixed boundary layer beneath returning elevated moisture could also support localized damaging gusts. Coverage of the severe threat remains somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance is possible later this evening, if a substantial hail threat appears imminent. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38969387 37649490 37429581 37879693 38159774 39079904 39479948 39739878 40229635 40289601 40179499 39769412 39369389 38969387 NNNN