ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170032 
SPC MCD 170032 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-170200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...pats of far eastern Iowa...central/northern
Illinois...and far southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...120...

Valid 170032Z - 170200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117, 120 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds, hail, and a couple of
tornadoes continues. Local extensions of WW117 may be needed across
parts of IL this evening.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster of thunderstorms over eastern IA is
expected to move into western IL and southern WI in the next hour.
Buoyancy generally decreases with north/eastward extent as previous
convection has overturned the air mass south of the nearly
stationary warm front. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and strong
deep-layer shear will allow storms to stay organized farther east
into IL early this evening. Damaging winds appear to be the most
likely threat given the linear mode, but hail and a couple of
tornadoes will remain possible. Strong to severe storms may linger
over parts of far southeast IA and into western/central IL after the
planned 01z expiration of WW118. Convective trends will be monitored
and a local extension could be necessary.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 04/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   39999044 40139091 40449118 40909124 42679041 43309008
            43388972 43248926 43098872 42778858 42208880 41548893
            41218906 40298949 39999044 

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