ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162016 
SPC MCD 162016 
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-162145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...central and eastern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162016Z - 162145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...A plume of rich low-level moisture has advected across
eastern Texas, Louisiana and into southern Arkansas. Weak isentropic
ascent has been sufficient for storm development on the leading edge
of this moist plume. Effective shear of 50 to 55 knots and will be
proficient for organized storms, including supercells. However, warm
mid-level temperatures and weak ascent will be the primary limiting
factor to a greater threat. Therefore, a few stronger storms may
develop with a threat for large hail, but this threat is expected to
remain too isolated to warrant a watch.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33229391 33729381 34459361 35109322 35589276 36179209
            36469071 36329008 35878979 34549040 33619121 33179180
            32969233 32909373 33229391 

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