ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 161350 SPC MCD 161350 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161445- Mesoscale Discussion 0457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of IA into northern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161350Z - 161445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing across far eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri will likely continue to shift northeast through the morning. Severe potential may increase gradually through the morning downstream across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Area being monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms tracking northeast across eastern KS/northwest MO ahead of a surface cold front are expected to continue through the morning. The downstream airmass remains at least weakly capped given cloud cover and limited heating. Ongoing activity is likely sub-severe at this point, though may produce gusty winds 40-50 mph given recent obs of 41 kt at STJ and 39 kt at EVU. With time and additional destabilization, convection may intensify and become severe, though the northern extent of convection will also be outpacing higher-quality moisture/warmer temperatures as storms lift northeast into IA (surface dewpoints in the 50s F). Additional convection is expected to develop with southward extent into northern MO. This area is currently experiencing somewhat better heating through broken cloudiness. This may allow for greater destabilization given better boundary-layer moisture. The overall expectation is that a line of storms will develop north to south across IA into northern MO through the morning. This activity will have potential to produce severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes. Additional severe potential may develop later this afternoon in the wake of this initial morning activity if airmass recovery can occur. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39509570 41579564 42179444 42249224 41719159 40309139 39009163 38689181 38489220 38319326 38539450 39019524 39379568 39509570 NNNN