ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160207 
SPC MCD 160207 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-160430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska amd adjacent portions of the
Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 160207Z - 160430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in generally weak thunderstorm activity is
ongoing.  While there is some uncertainty, the risk for severe
weather still appears limited until late tonight.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant mid-level trough emerging
from the Southwest, a developing area of mid-level warm advection is
becoming focused across the northeastern Kansas/eastern Nebraska
vicinity of the middle Missouri Valley.  Based on radar, and the
16/00Z sounding from Topeka, associated lift and moistening are
contributing to destabilization supportive of an ongoing increase in
convective development, which is rooted above the inversion
associated with a prominent elevated mixed-layer.

Below the capping inversion, boundary-layer moistening, within a
corridor to the west of the Missouri River, has contributed to
mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.  And, in the presence of 
sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer
shear, the environment has become conditionally favorable for
boundary-layer based supercells.  However, until the leading edge of
mid-level cooling approaching from the southwest begins to
overspread the region later tonight, the boundary-layer instability
and stronger convective potential may remain unrealized.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41929840 41409626 39859488 39369553 40009737 40399786
            41679892 41929840 

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