ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152045 
SPC MCD 152045 
ILZ000-MOZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast Missouri into southwestern
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152045Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon.
Hail and gusty winds will be the main threats. Given the sparse
nature of the potential severe threat, a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus continues to deepen south of a warm
front draped across southeastern MO into southwestern IL, where
diurnal heating has continued to erode convective inhibition and
boost SBCAPE to over 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings in this region
show elongated hodographs with minimal low-level curvature amid a
mixed boundary layer, suggesting that damaging gusts and large hail
would be the main threats with any storms that can develop and
sustain themselves. The primary limiting factor for a more
appreciable severe risk in eastern MO into IL is the lack of
stronger deep-layer ascent, which should at least minimize storm
coverage, and questions still remain if robust convection will
develop at all. Given the aforementioned uncertainties, a WW
issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37839150 38279132 38479091 38649031 38628945 38418907
            38148901 37828934 37658983 37579074 37839150 

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