ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151930 
SPC MCD 151930 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-152100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...Southwest South Dakota and far northern Nebraska.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151930Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms development is possible within the
hour across southwest South Dakota. Additional supercell development
is expected later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s across
southwest South Dakota which, despite the dry airmass, has led to
moderate destabilization. Visible satellite shows a few cumulus
clusters near the Badlands, moving northwest. Most CAM guidance
suggests storm development much later this afternoon/early evening,
but satellite trends suggest convective initiation may occur within
the next hour. 

If isolated severe storms develop, a severe thunderstorm watch may
be needed soon. Otherwise, a watch is more likely late this
afternoon/early evening when stronger lift overspreads the region
and more widespread thunderstorm development occurs. Strongly veered
wind profiles will support supercell storm mode with large hail, and
given the nearly 50 degree dewpoint depressions and inverted-V
soundings, severe wind gusts will also be possible.

..Bentley/Smith.. 04/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43180400 44020420 44470407 44230206 43730031 43289982
            42590027 42310137 42570268 43180400 

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