ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 112224 
SPC MCD 112224 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-120030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of western North/South Carolina into
southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 112224Z - 120030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts and a couple of
tornadoes may increase through this evening. While there is some
uncertainty in storm coverage/intensity a watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2215 UTC, regional satellite and radar showed
small storms developing across portions of western NC into northern
SC. While small, lightning and reflectively structures have
intensified over the last 30 minutes, indicating deepening updrafts.
Ongoing within a relatively moist environment (dewpoints in the mid
60s F) modest low and mid-level lapse rates are contributing to
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 60-70 kt of deep-layer shear from area VADs
and modest forcing for ascent are favorable for storm organization
with supercell structures.

While storms have steadily increased in intensity, modest
buoyancy/lapse rates have so far favored relatively low topped
convection. However, further maturation is possible, and low-level
shear is forecast to increase through this evening as storms move
north/northeast. Effective SRH of 200-350 m2/s2 from SPC
mesoanalysis may support a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the
more robust supercells able to become established. Damaging gusts
will also be possible given strong background flow. Given the
potential for some increase in the tornado/wind risk this evening, a
WW is possible.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 04/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36577967 36227970 35458015 34728087 34628114 34688152
            34908191 35268226 35608230 36028219 36508176 37258065
            36977991 36577967 

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