ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 111754 SPC MCD 111754 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-112000- Mesoscale Discussion 0422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeast Tennessee and eastern Kentucky into extreme western Virginia and western West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111754Z - 112000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase into the afternoon and with northern extent. The stronger, longer-lasting storms will be capable of large hail and damaging gusts, with a tornado or two possible farther north into KY/WV where low-level shear is stronger. DISCUSSION...Pockets of surface heating, amid widespread clouds and ongoing showers and thunderstorms, is supporting surface temperatures rising into the mid 60s to 70 F amid upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. The surface heating is allowing for the steepening of low-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 500 J/kg in spots. Meanwhile, the approach of a longer-wave mid-level trough is promoting continued deep-layer ascent across the region, that in tandem with deep-layer shear, should only increase with time. As such, the increasing intensity and coverage of storms will be gradual this afternoon, and will be dependent on continued destabilization over eastern portions of the OH Valley. Initial storms may produce gusty winds and hail across northeast TN into eastern KY. However, as storms potentially intensify into the afternoon hours, damaging gusts will become a greater concern as storms move into northeast KY into WV. Given larger, curved low-level hodographs driven by backed flow, the best chance for any tornado development will also be in the northeast KY/WV area later this afternoon. As such, overall greater WW issuance possibilities increase with northward extent this afternoon. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36258528 37468432 38408310 38718199 38558157 38178134 37688177 36888256 36408301 36128352 35668416 36258528 NNNN