ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111433 
SPC MCD 111433 
FLZ000-GAZ000-111630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Areas affected...northern and central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

Valid 111433Z - 111630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms continues moving eastward
across northern Florida, where local severe-weather risk continues.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of
thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Georgia coast
southwestward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico west of Tampa.  Storms
have remained largely sub-severe despite very favorable deep-layer
shear, due to an overall lack of appreciable buoyancy.  The 12Z TBW
RAOB shows a deeply moist airmass, but very weak lapse rates, with
several warm layers that hint at subdued updraft acceleration,
confirming the character of convection at this time per radar
reflectivity.

With that said, filtered heating through high cirrus ahead of the
convection has allowed heating to commence, with surface
temperatures having risen a few degrees over the past 1 to 2 hours. 
Continued insolation/heating will allow destabilization eventually
permit more unimpeded updrafts, and a corresponding increase in
convective intensity/organization, aided by the favorable background
kinematic environment.  As such, local severe risk -- including
isolated tornado potential -- should gradually increase over the
next couple of hours.

..Goss.. 04/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27768404 28948331 29978264 31038152 31068090 29788094
            27888228 27568338 27768404 

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