ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100821 
SPC MCD 100821 
LAZ000-TXZ000-101015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast/Southeast
Texas...Southwest/South-Central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99...

Valid 100821Z - 101015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph,
and line-embedded tornadoes are expected to become more common over
the next few hours. A downstream Tornado Watch will likely be needed
across far southeast Texas and southwest/south-central Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Convective trends within the ongoing line across
southeast TX/Upper TX Coast continue to suggest organization into a
more formidable squall line is underway. Current storm motion of
this line is eastward at 40 kt, and this storm motion takes it to
the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99 at 10Z. However, some
additional acceleration is likely as the line becomes better
organized, potentially taking it to the edge of the watch sooner. 

An outflow boundary remains draped from northern Harris County
eastward in Calcasieu Parish. Interaction with this boundary likely
contributed to the mesovortex currently ongoing over northern Harris
County. This boundary will likely act as the northern extent of the
severe risk over the next few hours.

Damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph, will remain
the primary severe risk. However, line-embedded mesovorticies
capable of tornadoes are also expected to become more common as the
line moves into far southeast TX and southwest LA. As a result, a
Tornado Watch will likely be needed downstream within the next hour.

..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   30099569 30949474 31029225 30119185 29699259 29579325
            29489395 29099489 28699592 30099569 

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