ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092340 
SPC MCD 092340 
TXZ000-100115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

Valid 092340Z - 100115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail potential will continue
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing early this
evening across central TX, with recent reports of 2+ inch hail
across the north side of Austin. These cells are ongoing north of a
nearly stationary surface boundary, where MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg
and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to provide a favorable
supercell environment through much of the evening, with a threat of
very large hail (potentially in the 1.75 - 2.5 inch diameter range)
and localized severe gusts. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out
with any sustained supercell near the surface boundary. 

While storms should generally move eastward north of the boundary
through early evening, more isolated development will be possible
near the intersection of the front and a weak surface
trough/effective dryline extending into portions of south-central
TX, where stronger heating/mixing occurred this afternoon. Later
this evening, the western portion of the front may begin
accelerating southward with increasing storm coverage, though timing
of any such development remains uncertain.

..Dean.. 04/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30809943 31099880 31349794 31369754 31339719 31079695
            30809687 30219689 29909716 29699742 29659766 29619800
            29619832 29799912 29899932 30039947 30209949 30809943 

NNNN