ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 091630 SPC MCD 091630 TXZ000-091900- Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest into central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091630Z - 091900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for mainly large hail should gradually increase in coverage through early afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...16Z surface observations show a front draped across west into north-central TX, with a dryline extending south from the front towards the Big Bend vicinity. Occasional supercells have been occurring this morning to the north of the front across western north TX, with mainly a large hail threat but occasional measured severe wind gusts too. Recent radar and visible satellite trends indicate another thunderstorm has developed north of San Angelo near the front/dryline intersection. The airmass downstream appears favorable for supercells, with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear likely to support updraft organization. As ascent associated with the upper low over the Southwest and attendant mid-level jet nosing into the southern High Plains continues to overspread the warm sector, most high-resolution guidance shows additional supercells developing through early afternoon. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, scattered large to very large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main severe threat. Isolated strong to locally severe winds may also occur with any convective downdrafts. Trends will be monitored through the rest of the morning and into early afternoon for signs of additional robust thunderstorm development, which may prompt eventual watch issuance. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31800099 32100070 32490019 32839970 32889909 32639864 31919857 31279877 30739924 30420006 30680080 31800099 NNNN