ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091030 
SPC MCD 091030 
TXZ000-NMZ000-091230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Areas affected...Southwest TX into the Permian Basin and Far
Southeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 091030Z - 091230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional risk for large to very large hail will
continue from far southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin and
southwest Texas this morning. A watch may be needed if trends
suggest sufficient storm coverage is likely.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms continue across far southeast NM
and the TX South Plains amid persistent warm-air advection to the
north of a  surface low centered over the Pecos County TX vicinity.
Large hail will remain possible with these storms over the next hour
or two. 

Farther south, a recent attempt at deep convection near the center
of the low over Crane, Midland, and Upton Counties in TX failed, but
additional attempts are expected in this area as surface convergence
persists and large-scale forcing for ascent gradually increases.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust deep-layer vertical shear
across this region would support strong updrafts capable of large to
very large hail with any sustained development. Primary uncertainty
is whether or not updrafts can be sustained amid the substantial
low/mid-level dry air in place. Given the conditional risk for large
to very large hail and potential need for a watch, observational
data and convective trends will be monitored closely over the next
couple of hours for signs that deeper convection can be maintained.

..Mosier/Smith.. 04/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32900372 33200238 32290045 31150010 30700107 31330298
            32900372 

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