ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 081526 SPC MCD 081526 LAZ000-TXZ000-081800- Mesoscale Discussion 0383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of the mid/upper Texas coastal plain and adjacent western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081526Z - 081800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may begin to form across and inland of mid/upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coastal areas by early afternoon. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail, and perhaps a tornado, before storms increase and intensify with a more notable increase in severe weather potential later this afternoon, as activity spreads toward central/northern Texas. DISCUSSION...An initial influx of low-level moisture, which accompanied a significant cyclone now weakening over the Upper Midwest vicinity, lingers along and south of a stalling/weakening boundary now extending across the lower Mississippi Valley into southeastern Texas. This includes surface dew points ranging from the lower 70s across the northwestern Gulf into immediate Texas Gulf coastal areas, and upper 60s F further inland across the coastal plain, which will begin to advect northwestward and northward through the day, downstream of a significant short wave trough turning eastward across the Southwest. Beneath the northeastern periphery of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air advecting across the lower Rio Grande Valley, this moisture already appears to be contributing to sizable CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. This probably will increase at least a bit further through the day, as thin spots and breaks in the overcast allow for some insolation. At the same time, models indicate strengthening of southwesterly flow into mid-levels (30-50+ kts in the 700-500 mb layer), beneath a strong upper jet emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and by early afternoon the environment will become increasingly conducive to potential for supercells. Various model output suggests that at least widely scattered thunderstorms may begin to form across and inland of coastal areas by around 17-18Z, before gradually intensifying and increasing further within northwestward and northward spreading large-scale ascent aided by low-level warm advection. While it is possible that it may take a couple of hours for a more substantive increase in severe weather potential to develop, as storms acquire better inflow of more unstable near-surface air, initial storms may pose at least some risk for severe hail. The risk for a brief tornado may also not be completely negligible, though clockwise curved low-level hodographs will initially be weak. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29189796 30279668 31559496 32079393 31989315 31709266 30679286 30279415 29849513 29319588 28649711 28589781 29189796 NNNN