ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 061819 SPC MCD 061819 KSZ000-NEZ000-062045- Mesoscale Discussion 0377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Areas affected...parts of southern Nebraska...northern and central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061819Z - 062045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually develop and intensify this afternoon, eventually posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. By 4-6 PM CDT, this may include increasing potential for supercells, east of Hill City into the Concordia vicinity and southward toward Emporia. DISCUSSION...One short wave perturbation already appears to have emerged from the base of larger-scale mid/upper troughing progressing out of the Great Basin/Southwest, and is now pivoting north-northeast of the Front Range. In its wake, an intense mid-level jet streak currently nosing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may undergo subtle weakening, but still appears likely to remain in excess of 90 kt around 500 mb, while taking on more of a west-southwesterly component as it propagates toward the Russell/Hutchinson vicinity of central Kansas through 21-23Z. Stronger forcing for ascent is forecast to become focused along the warm frontal zone associated with a deep occluding cyclone to the lee of the Front Range, roughly near the western Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity during the next few hours. This appears likely to coincide with increasing destabilization, associated with a deepening mixed boundary-layer to the south of the front. Warm sector boundary-layer moistening will remain on lower margins for vigorous convective development, but lower/mid 40s along the warm front may be sufficient for CAPE up to 500 J/kg, beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures (near -20C around 500 mb). Scattered thunderstorms are already beginning to initiate across parts of the high plains. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, forcing for ascent may gradually focus stronger, organizing convection near the triple point of the occluding cyclone, north-northeast of the Hill City vicinity, before this spreads eastward through late afternoon. By 21-23Z, it appears that additional, more discrete storms (including evolving supercells) may gradually begin to initiate southward along the dryline toward the Wichita area, within a narrow corridor of better boundary-layer moistening (including surface dew points in the upper 40s/near 50F). ..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39339911 39710042 39950128 40790103 40749951 40359770 39689640 38309642 38259761 39069826 39339911 NNNN