ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 031702 
SPC MCD 031702 
FLZ000-031830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of north/central FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

Valid 031702Z - 031830Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes should continue across parts of north/central Florida.

DISCUSSION...Convection across north FL has become more parallel to
the mid-level southwesterly flow. This has slowed its southward
advance across the FL Peninsula, but additional thunderstorms have
also strengthened recently across the eastern Gulf of Mexico along
or just ahead of a cold front. Given the mainly linear nature of
these thunderstorms, current expectations are for mainly a damaging
wind threat to continue through the afternoon as the airmass south
of the ongoing activity gradually destabilizes. Strong deep-layer
shear of 40-50 kt will help maintain thunderstorm
organization/intensity. Sufficient low-level shear is also present
to support updraft rotation with embedded circulations and some
tornado threat within the line, and with any cells that can develop
across the open warm sector.

..Gleason.. 04/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28868322 29358294 30148115 29588084 28858080 28408109
            28168213 28248304 28868322 

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