ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 031405 
SPC MCD 031405 
FLZ000-GAZ000-031530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of north FL and extreme southeast GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...

Valid 031405Z - 031530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and tornado threat may continue
across parts of north FL. A local extension in area of Tornado Watch
85 is possible. Or, a new downstream Watch could be issued.

DISCUSSION...A cluster/loosely organized line of convection is
ongoing across north FL and far southeast GA this morning ahead of a
cold front. While the 12Z sounding from JAX showed substantial
capping/inhibition and visible satellite indicates some anvil
shading, continued diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass
ahead of the line of thunderstorms should help gradually erode most
of the remaining MLCIN. Weak instability will likely be sufficient
to maintain convective structure and intensity given ample low-level
and deep-layer shear present on recent VWPs from KJAX. With around
200-250 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present, embedded updraft rotation
within the line should continue to pose some threat for a few
tornadoes through the rest of the morning and perhaps into the
afternoon, as convection spreads east-southeastward across the north
FL Peninsula. Occasional damaging winds will also remain a concern
as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. A local extension in
area of Tornado Watch 85, or a new downstream Watch, will need to be
considered for parts of north FL.

..Gleason.. 04/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29608366 30278296 30698203 30648150 30248135 29828117
            29218095 28718191 28768270 29288357 29608366 

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