ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022253 
SPC MCD 022253 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama...Northwest
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 022253Z - 030200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous through the
evening, with an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging winds. 
Watch issuance is expected in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A very warm/moist and moderately unstable and only
weakly capped air mass is in place this evening across much of
southern MS/AL, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s.  Recent
satellite/radar loops show isolate showers and thunderstorms
beginning to develop in this region.  Models have been consistent in
the development of a strong southerly low-level jet by mid-evening,
resulting in northward advection of the better moisture and
strengthening low-level wind fields.  Forecast soundings suggest
rapid enlargement of hodographs after dark, with parameters becoming
quite favorable for supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging
winds.  A tornado watch will be needed for parts of this region in
the next couple of hours as more robust convective initiation
begins.

..Hart/Guyer.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32258913 33668809 34968490 33758421 32548536 31578849
            32258913 

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