ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020144 
SPC MCD 020144 
TXZ000-020315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020144Z - 020315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
central and southern TX ahead of the cold front. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the main threat with the more intense storms. A
WW issuance is unlikely since the severe threat should remain
isolated.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms and transient supercells have
developed ahead of a cold front across central into southern TX
toward the Rio Grande, and are poised to move eastward into an
increasingly buoyant airmass. Upper 70s to low 80s F surface
temperatures and 70+ F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (per 01Z
mesoanalysis). Regional VADs and 01Z mesoanalysis show elongated
hodographs with some low-level curvature, but also considerable CINH
in the 850-700 mb layer (as also shown by RAP forecast soundings).
Furthermore, regional radar data suggests that many of these storms
are anafrontal, and are occurring in a region of weaker deep-layer
ascent compared to areas farther north. Large hail and damaging
gusts may occur with some of the stronger storms if they can mature
and sustain themselves this evening. A WW issuance appears unlikely
since the overall severe threat should remain isolated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28660046 29999980 30929845 31389674 31329574 30939560
            30259576 29489636 28969700 28719778 28489944 28660046 

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